A recent press release from the UK Department for International Development (DFID) suggested that millions more people in Kenya are now at risk of malaria as a result of mosquitoes colonising higher ground as global temperatures rise. But columnist and environmental campaigner Chris Goodall says that DFID has produced no evidence to back up this assertion.

Chris Goodall approached DFID for details of the research on which the press release was based and was sent three papers. In his CarbonCommentary blog Goodall concludes that: “The specific claim that the Mount Kenya area has recently become vulnerable to malaria was backed up by interview data of a few years ago from a small number of families who declared a total of eight cases of malaria in the past five years compared to only three in the period of five to ten years ago. No medical analysis appears to have been carried out to determine whether the disease recorded was or was not malaria”. He says that the evidence regarding the presence of mosquitoes at higher altitudes is equally insubstantial.

Goodall adds that other research shows that “…the DFID assertion that malaria is increasing in highland regions of Kenya is highly questionable and that overall malaria rates are probably decreasing, although the geographic picture is complex”.

Climate change denialists - of whom there are many - are eager to jump on any unfounded claims made by those who advocate for action to hold back the threat. A warmer world is indeed likely to see rising rates of many infectious diseases and we must be prepared to adapt to this challenge. But unsubstantiated assertions are unhelpful and could well prove counter-productive.